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Author Topic: What happens to mortgages during high inflation?  (Read 479 times)
kundandoll
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« on: August 09, 2010, 01:48:59 PM »

Since the rules of our financial world are changing and I’m not too good at thinking through major changes in an economy, I have to ask the question to others who understand more than I about a currency collapse.  Let’s say I have a house in the US with a $200,000 mortgage.  If very high inflation hits the US, the dollar would lose a lot of value and gold would soar.  Let’s say the price of gold goes to $20,000/oz so I could sell ten gold coins and buy off the house.  If I originally bought these gold coins at $1,000/oz then I’ve essentially bought a house for $10,000.  (Note, I’m using an absurdly high number for gold just to have round numbers.) 

Now, what if a new currency is issued?  Let’s say $10,000 is now equal to 1 FRI ( I always wanted to have my face on the currency…).  Does that mean my mortgage gets converted to 20 FRIs?  Is that what happens, does everything get converted the new currency?  I guess that would mean I’d have a job that would pay about 5 FRIs per year, or 0.1 FRI a week.  I’m sure a lot of other major things would be going on at this time of turmoil but does a straight exchange of new money for old take place across the board?

Somewhere there has to be a flaw in my thinking because getting a $200,000 house (in today’s dollars) for only $10,000 worth of gold doesn’t seem right. The banks are pretty smart and I doubt I’m going to be able to beat them at their own game.

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Mick C
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2010, 08:40:12 PM »

Ummm you made me think a bit there- very interesting questions. let's hope i can answer it in a way you will understand.


Firstly some background information on currency and mortgage in general.

1. When currency goes up - economy starts to fall ( due to lack of exports) = less productively = less jobs =  interst rate will likely to Fall.

2. Each country's currency movement affects world/ foreign currency ( like a balance  beam) - that's how currency works, what is XX currency worth COMPARED to YY. THIS IS THE SAME FOR GOLD!!! Buying gold in China for cheap doesn't mean the gold is worth more in Australia - even through it SELL's for more, you have to look at the currency conversion and GPC to compare how much is that "gold" really worth. it's the same comparatively.

3. Property Like Gold is a Physical Asset/ item- it can APPREACITE in value and it does.

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Firstly The only time i can think of, where gold price soared to a premium compared to it's currency is Indonesia. 1kg gold = $50,000 aus

4.5 kg  of solid gold =  can buy you a home in indo.
$2.1 Million IDR = can buy a home in indo

So in this real example - gold seems like it's worth more then IDR 9( indo currency)
But how much does 4.5kg worth of gold cost TODAY ? = $2.1 Million IDR
So if you bought gold 10 years ago for half that price, then you made your self a baragain- the power of a appreciating asset,

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Secondly, your thinking and calculation is correct- IF the gold price did go to $20,000 then having 10 gold coin would pay the mortgage at $200,000. So in your example the 10 gold coin you now have (which has appreciated in price)  = the house value.  having said that - chance of your gold price going up to that sort of amount ( where it equals a home value_  happening is close to 1/1000000000, just look at history - when Greece's economy collapse this year! their currency drooped 80 points ( 44%) - the gold price went up by 5% only( short ( short period of time) , but other foreign currency soared. ...home value SOARED ( 30%)


So in summary, if currency drooped and your gold price went up, home value would mostly go up with it! - as long as ppl NEED for a home is the same - it will appreciate with the time.











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